Two top three-year-olds who could each be in line to challenge for the Melbourne Cup at the end of the year take each other on this Saturday in the Australian Guineas.
Both Profondo and Hitotsu have been featured in the early Cup betting. The former is around an 18.00 shot while the latter is around 26.00 right now.
Maher & Eustace Runner Fancied
While Profondo is shorter in the betting for the Cup, it’s Hitotsu who has been shading things as we head towards Flemington’s $1 million Australian Guineas this weekend.
That in itself is a surprise to many. Though Profondo has to contend with barrier 15, Hitotsu has to contend with dropping back further in distance.
The Ciaron Maher & David Eustance-trained colt was an impressive winner of the Victoria Derby back in late October. That was over an energy-sapping 2500 metres and he stuck it out right to the line.
That’s rock-solid form, but he was well beaten over 1600 metres before that by Randwick Guineas favourite Anamoe in the Caulfield Guineas and it could be argued that Profondo has more pace.
John Allen’s mount comes from the 2 barrier on Saturday and may need some luck in running.
Profondo for the Repeat?
Robbie Dolan rides Profondo for Richard Litt and he may actually appreciate the wider draw. He will look to get his mount into contention with around 600 metres to go before using his pace to pounce.
In the Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick in October, Profondo was drawn 9 of 12. He had plenty of toe that day to see off Never Been Kissed and he’ll look to repeat the trick.
That valuable success was achieved over 2000 metres. True, he’ll need to stay a lot further in time, but that speed could be the decider this weekend.
How the Australian Guineas May Affect the Melbourne Cup
It’s more than likely that if one of these two star three-year-olds wins the Australian Guineas, their odds will shorten for the Melbourne Cup on November 1 (see the Melbourne Cup odds). The bare result may not tell the entire story however.
Profondo is already slightly more fancied for the Cup than Hitotsu. If he were to swing round the field from gate 15 and win, he’ll be a solid proposition.
These race conditions may suit him much more though. In Hitotsu’s case, he has done precious little over 1600 metres to justify favouritism for this event. We say that despite his form with Anamoe.
Should he hit any trouble, be beaten, but stay on well he may be the one to watch. It’s clear he needs a longer trip and does look like a potential Melbourne Cup contender.
Win, lose or draw on Saturday, a strong finishing kick from Hitotsu only strengthens his claims for November.
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