We’ve already looked recently at how the Melbourne Cup market is shaping up. That tells us who the recognised contenders are right now.
With 17 weeks still to go, the market is stagnant. While we await more lead-up races and for new horses to throw their hat into the ring, we reckon it’s important for punters to truly know the quality of the horses involved.
We’ve looked at the latest run of each major contenders and how much room for improvement their may be. When the weights come out, you can decide for yourself how well handicapped each horse is.
Waller Holds a Strong Hand
Having finally won the race with Verry Elleegant, Chris Waller has a strong early hand in 2023. In a futures market dominated by ex-British and Irish horses, Waller has two in the shape of Soulcome and Francesco Guardi.
Four-year-old gelding Soulcombe, by Frankel is rated 103 after 11 career starts. He was rated only 83 by the British handicapper but he was improving quickly and has done so since arriving in Australia. At this age and stage of his career, he will definitely move up again.
Francesco Guardi is another Frankel. He is now rated 98 which is only 5lbs more than when he was in England. Despite this, he is definitely still on the upgrade so remains of huge interest.
The Irish Connection
Two gallopers very well touted as Melbourne Cup horses are Vauban and White Marlin.
The former, trained by Willie Mullins, was an outstanding Royal Ascot winner. It seems this race is the target, but he is now rated 114 at home and he would be sure to get a big weight to carry.
White Marlin is interesting. He was trained by two-time Cup winner Joseph O’Brien in Ireland before moving to Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott.
Six from 8 in his career now, White Marlin is rated 103 which doesn’t reflect his true ability. There is definitely more to come from him, though he needs to prove his stamina.
Flemington Form to the Fore
Both Lunar Flare (Grahame Begg) and Without A Fight (Anthony & Sam Freedman) have been tried at Flemington with differing results.
Lunar Flare was a good winner of the Bart Cummings last year, form we have to remember going into spring. She’s gone down in distance since then, but will surely be seen to best effect as a stayer. She is by Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente, but after 37 starts her 105 rating may need to come down.
Without A Fight is a classy type. When trained in England, he was targeted at the Melbourne Cup in 2022 but could do no better than 13th.
Although six years old now, it is encouraging that his rating has dropped. He was rated 113 in England, but currently 109 here. His two Group wins at Eagle Farm suggest there’s plenty more to come from him yet.
