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Melbourne Cup Tips & Predictions 2023

We’ve all got a way of picking our Melbourne Cup horses. It can pay to hear a second opinion in the form of some Melbourne Cup tips, or to analyse Melbourne Cup trends to see what a typical winner looks like. Rest assured you’re in the right place. We’ve got a racing expert analysing all the form in the Melbourne Cup Festival build-up to bring you well-researched Melbourne Cup 2023 tips and predictions, plus a run through the Melbourne Cup trends to help you decide which horses are the best ones to back at Flemington Park this year.

Our Melbourne Cup 2023 Tips & Picks

Find out the best Melbourne Cup horses to bet on with detailed analysis from our expert horse racing tipster. As you’ll see, he’s studied the form lines in detail, leaving no stone unturned in his search to bring you some winning Melbourne Cup 2023 tips.

1st VAUBAN
2nd Soulcombe
3rd Valiant King

[bcblocks type=”Operator Info” template=”4″ operator_type=”Horse Racing” operator=”Unibet” text=”Sign up to Unibet”]The last winning Melbourne Cup favourite was the Gai Waterhouse-trained Fiorente in 2013, but there is every chance we could see this 10-year run without a winning jolly end this season. VAUBAN is the likely 2023 Melbourne Cup favourite and it’s easy to see why. This Willie Mullins-trained 6 year-old will be familiar to many as a past Cheltenham Festival winner when landing the 2022 Triumph Hurdle. Since then he’s been mixing it with the best-of-the-best in that sphere, including a fourth in this year’s Champion Hurdle at the Festival to the classy Constitution Hill.

However, since his spell over hurdles last winter, the Willie Mullins camp have campaigned this Rich Ricci-owned gelding on the flat and with a lot of success too. He won the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot back in June by an impressive 7½ lengths – for jockey Ryan Moore – beating his stablemate Absurde in that 1m6f contest. While he’s since added the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes at Naas to his flat CV – taking his overall tally on the level to 4-from-6. We know he stays 2m well over hurdles, so the step up in trip on the flat looks fine. While the form of those flat wins have since been boosted with Absurde winning the York Ebor Handicap at the end of August and with 3 months to freshen up for the Melbourne Cup, should be ready to rumble again.

He can provide trainer Willie Mullins with his first Melbourne Cup win and give the Irish raiders their third win in the ‘Race That Stops a Nation’ since 2017. Vauban’s owner Rich Ricci has also made no secret of the fact he wants to win this top handicap and came close in 2015 when his Max Dynamite took the silver.

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Of the rest, last year’s winner Gold Trip and the recent Caulfield Cup hero Without A Fight are sure to be popular, but Soulcombe and Valiant King are the others for the Melbourne Cup 1-2-3 tips.

Soulcombe hails from the Chris Waller yard, who won this race in 2021 with Verry Elleegant, so know what’s required to get the job done. This 5 year-old warmed up for a tilt at this lucrative prize with a fine seventh in the Caulfield Cup on 21st October – beaten just 5 ½ lengths behind Without A Fight. However, when looking back at that race, Soulcombe not only missed the break but also didn’t get the best of runs through – having to be switched. He seemed to just lack the pace to get to the leaders over that 1m4f trip, so this step up to 2m for the first time looks well worth a crack. Add in the horse is a past Flemington Park winner, when taking the Listed Roy Higgins there in March, and more recently ran a close third to Gold Trip in the Turnbull Stakes at the track in early October. Craig Williams, who normally rides Soulcombe, is expected to take the ride and is also past Melbourne Cup winner too, having won the pot in 2019 on Vow And Declare.

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Valiant King is the final 1-2-3 pick and coming from the powerful Joseph O’Brien yard is sure to have his supporters of those at bigger prices. The O’Brien camp are firmly cemented into the Melbourne Cup history books with wins in 2017 with Rekindling and more recently in 2020 with Twilight Payment, so are another yard that know the time of day in this event. They could also run Okita Soushi, but Valiant King is chanced having run Vauban to just 1½ lengths at Naas back in August and has seemingly settled in well to his spell in Australia with a fine 6th in the Caulfield Cup in October. This Roaring Lion colt was beaten just 5½ lengths that day at Caulfield but didn’t get a clear run around the furlong pole and once he got space stayed on well to the line. He’s another that will be stepping up in trip for the first time, but the way he ended his race the last day points to this longer distance being within range. He’ll be looking to become the fourth 4 year-old winner since 2017 and further etch young trainer Joesph O’Brien into the Melbourne Cup hall-of-fame as he hunts win number three.

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Everyone has their own way of deciding which Melbourne Cup runners to back each year. Many go with the shortest, or indeed the longest Melbourne Cup odds on offer, others have a jockey they always follow, there are punters who choose based on a horse’s name or colours or else you could simply find some Melbourne Cup tips. With a field of 24 to choose from, it can help to use Melbourne Cup trends to guide your decision, whether you go all in on a particular type of horse or simply use the make-up of previous winners to rule out what you think are no-hopers.

Let’s look at all the Melbourne Cup winners since 2009 to start with, alongside their odds:

YearHorseOdds
2009Shocking9/1
2010Americain12/1
2011Dunaden15/2
2012Green Moon19/1
2013Fiorente13/2F
2014Protectionist7/1
2015Prince Of Penzance100/1
2016Almandon10/1
2017Rekindling15/1
2018Cross Counter11/1
2019Vow And Declare10/1
2020Twilight Payment25/1
2021Verry Elleegant18/1
2022Gold Trip21/1
  • Average winning Melbourne Cup odds: 19.0
  • Range of winning Melbourne Cup odds: 7.5 to 101.0
  • Winning Melbourne Cup favourites: 1
  • Melbourne Cup winners with double figure odds: 9
  • Melbourne Cup winners with triple figure odds: 1

The most eye-catching stat here is there have been as many 101.0 shots win the Melbourne Cup as there have been winning favourites. This implies it’s certainly worth looking more in depth for relevant Melbourne Cup trends, rather than simply backing the favourite or ruling out the underdogs based solely on their odds.

Melbourne Cup Betting Trends
Editorial credit: Kaspars Grinvalds / Shutterstock.com

The Melbourne Cup is staged each year on the first Tuesday in November and is dubbed as ‘The Race That Stops A Nation’. It’s the richest handicap run over this distance in the world so it always attracts runners from all corners of the globe and there are also many key pointers on how to bet on the Melbourne Cup including these trends and stats.

Plenty has changed since the Melbourne Cup was first run in 1861, so it makes sense to focus on the most recent runnings of the race when looking for trends to keep a close eye on. Here we’ll highlight some notable Melbourne Cup trends based on the 10 most recent Melbourne Cup race winners.

9/10 – Didn’t win last race before Melbourne Cup
9/10 – Won over 1½ miles or more before Melbourne Cup
6/10 – Placed in last race before Melbourne Cup
6/10 – Last run was 30 or less days before Melbourne Cup
4/10 – Last run was more than 30 days before Melbourne Cup
4/10 – Last run before Melbourne Cup was at Mooney Valley
3/10 – Last run before Melbourne Cup was in the UK or Ireland
2/10 – Last run before Melbourne Cup was at Caulfield
2/10 – Melbourne Cup winner trained by John Patrick O’Brien
2/10 – Melbourne Cup winner ridden by Kevin McEvoy
1/10 – Last run before Melbourne Cup was also at Flemington
1/10 – Won last race before Melbourne Cup

It’s very interesting to note that nine of the last ten Melbourne Cup winners came into the famous race having failed to win on their previous outing, so the best Melbourne Cup tips and predictions should certainly look beyond a horse’s most recent outing. Most recent Melbourne Cup winners did secure a place on their last run though, whether that was recorded in Australia or overseas, so your horse should head to Flemington racecourse in some sort of form.

If you’d prefer to go back a little further when analysing the best Melbourne Cup trends to follow, we’ve looked through the record books to help you out.

19/19 – Had won a Group class race before
17/19 – Won 8 or fewer races before
17/19 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
16/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
16/19 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
16/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
16/19 – Raced at Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (4) or Moon Valley (7) last time
14/19 – Aged 5 or older
13/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/19 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
13/19 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
13/19 – Had raced at Flemington Park before (8 won there)
12/19 – Won by a AUS-based horse
11/19 – Aged 6 or older
10/19 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/19 – Horses from stall 10 or 11 placed
9/19 – Had won over 1m7f or further before
9/19 – Won by a 6 year-old
9/19 – Placed favourites
5/19 – Had won just once before
4/19 – Won last time out
4/19 – Had raced in a previous Melbourne Cup
3/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Mare winners
3/19 – English/Irish winners
2/19 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 19 Melbourne Cup runnings is 19.0

It’s fair to say that being a Group class race winner is absolutely crucial so that can provide an easy way to weed out some no-hopers when doing your Melbourne Cup research.

Who has won the Melbourne Cup in the past?

If you’re looking for Melbourne Cup tips and predictions, it can pay to consider horses that have performed well at Flemington before. You might even want to bet on the time of the winning horse. Take a look at the table below to find the most recent Melbourne Cup winners.

YearMelbourne Cup WinnerRace TimeOdds
Melbourne Cup 2022Gold Trip3:24:0421/1
Melbourne Cup 2021Verry Elleegant3:17:4318/1
Melbourne Cup 2020Twilight Payment3:17.3425/1
Melbourne Cup 2019Vow and Declare3:24.761/1
Melbourne Cup 2018Cross Counter3:21.1711/1
Melbourne Cup 2017Rekindling 3:21.1915/1
Melbourne Cup 2016Almandin3:20.5810/1
Melbourne Cup 2015Prince of Penzance3:23.15100/1
Melbourne Cup 2014Protectionist3:17.717/1
Melbourne Cup 2013Fiorente 3:20.3013/2f
Melbourne Cup 2012Green Moon3:20.4519/1
Melbourne Cup 2011Dunaden3:20.8415/2
Melbourne Cup 2010Americain3:26.8712/1
Melbourne Cup 2009Shocking3:23.879/1

How do Melbourne Cup favourites perform?

Anything can happen when it comes to horse racing, and this is especially true when it comes to the Melbourne Cup. For example, while it may seem counter-intuitive, racing history suggests that betting on the favourite is not always the best option if you want to bet on the Melbourne Cup winner. In fact, only one racing favourite has won the Melbourne Cup in the last 12 years. The table below shows previous Melbourne Cup favourites and their finishing positions.

Melbourne Cup YearMelbourne Cup FavouriteFinal Place
Melbourne Cup 2022Deauville Legend4th
Melbourne Cup 2021Icentivise2nd
Melbourne Cup 2020Surprise Baby13th
Melbourne Cup 2019Finche7th
Melbourne Cup 2018Yucatan11th
Melbourne Cup 2017Marmelo9th
Melbourne Cup 2016Hartnell3rd
Melbourne Cup 2015Fame Game13th
Melbourne Cup 2014Admire Rakti22nd
Melbourne Cup 2013Fiorente1st
Melbourne Cup 2012Dunaden14th
Melbourne Cup 2011Americain5th

By looking at these Melbourne Cup results, you can see that the best time in the past decade was achieved by Twilight Payment in 2020. The best recorded time overall was actually achieved in 1990 by Kingston Rule – 3:16.3, and it is more than a second faster than the time recorded by Twilight Payment.

While most of the focus is normally on the horses, it’s also important to keep each horse’s jockey and trainer in mind when placing your bets. Successful trainers such as Joseph and Danny O’Brien have had many of their horses go on to be crowned this race’s champion – for example, Joseph O’Brien trained 2020 winner Twilight Payment.

Additionally, a jockey’s racing history, weight and level of experience can also be contributing factors to the wagers which bettors end up placing.

These two pieces of information are known in the run-up to the competition, so you should take advantage of these facts when considering your Melbourne Cup bets.

YearWinning HorseWinning JockeyWinning Trainer
2022Gold TripMark ZahraCiaron Maher & David Eustace
2021Verry ElleegantJames McDonaldChris Waller
2020Twilight PaymentJye McNeilJoseph O’Brien
2019Vow And DeclareCraig WilliamsDanny O’Brien
2018Cross CounterKerrin McEvoyCharlie Appleby
2017RekindlingCorey BrownJoseph O’Brien
2016AlmandinKerrin McEvoyRob Hickmott
2015Prince of PenzanceMichelle PayneDarren Weir
2014ProtectionistRyan MooreAndreas Wohler
2013FiorenteDamien OliverGai Waterhouse
2012Green MoonBrett PrebbleRob Hickmott
2011DunadenChristophe LemaireMikel Delzangles
  • Makybe Diva is the most successful horse in the Melbourne Cup with three wins in 2003, 2004 and 2005.
  • Two jockeys have both experienced the thrill of winning the Melbourne Cup four times. Bobby Lewis won the race in 1902, 1915, 1919 and 1927 while Harry White repeated the feat with wins in 1974, 1975, 1978 and 1979.
  • Bart Cummings is the trainer with the most Melbourne Cup wins to his name. His 12 victories came in 1965, 1966, 1967, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1979, 1990, 1991, 1996, 1999 and 2008.
  • Lloyd Williams’ horses have won the Melbourne Cup more often with a total 7 Melbourne Cup wins in 1981, 1985, 2007, 2012, 2016, 2017 and 2020 making him the most decorated owner.Michelle Payne became the first female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup in 2015, when the won the race on Prince of Penzance.

How do Melbourne Cup international horses perform?

The money, history and prestige involved in the Melbourne Cup mean it’s become a race that trainers and jockeys from across the world want to be involved in. The 2023 Melbourne Cup is likely to see the international challenge led by the Willie Mullins trained Vauban, but how has the overseas challenge fared in years gone by?

Melbourne Cup YearMelbourne Cup WinnerCountry of Horse
Melbourne Cup 2022Gold TripFrance
Melbourne Cup 2021Verry ElleegantNew Zealand
Melbourne Cup 2020Twilight PaymentIreland
Melbourne Cup 2019Vow and DeclareAustralia
Melbourne Cup 2018Cross CounterUnited Kingdom
Melbourne Cup 2017RekindlingUnited Kingdom
Melbourne Cup 2016AlmandinGermany
Melbourne Cup 2015Prince of PenzanceAustralia
Melbourne Cup 2014ProtectionistGermany
Melbourne Cup 2013FiorenteIreland
Melbourne Cup 2012Green MoonIreland
Melbourne Cup 2011DunadenFrance

There are plenty more ways to analyse the previous Melbourne Cup races in the hope of finding trends that can point us in the direction of a winner.

Below you’ll find the ages horses have been when they’ve won the Melbourne Cup race, and how many times a horse of each age has won. There are two camps when it comes to the ideal age of a winning Melbourne Cup horse, so study the results before deciding whether you favour youthful exuberance over years of experience.

Age of Melbourne Cup Winning HorseTotal Melbourne Cup Wins
Three23 wins
Four46 wins
Five44 wins
Six33 wins
Seven11 wins
Eight3 wins

Here are the four most common weights horses have been when they’ve won the Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup Winning WeightsTotal Melbourne Cup Wins
54.5kg8 wins
53.5kg7 wins
53kgs7 wins
52.5kgs7 wins

Although there’s no magic barrier that will guarantee a win for the horses and jockeys who are placed there, some bettors prefer to bet on runners whose barriers are positioned in a certain part of the field, once the draw has happened. The Melbourne Cup barrier number was particularly noteworthy in 2021 as Verry Elleegant became the first horse in the race’s 160+ year history to win out of barrier number 18.

Melbourne Cup YearHorseTrainerBarrier
Melbourne Cup 2022Gold TripCiaron Maher & David Eustace13
Melbourne Cup 2021Verry ElleegantChris Walter18
Melbourne Cup 2020Twilight PaymentJoseph O’Brien12
Melbourne Cup 2019Vow and DeclareDanny O’Brien21
Melbourne Cup 2018Cross CounterCharlie Appleby23
Melbourne Cup 2017RekindlingDavid Wachman & Joseph O’Brien4
Melbourne Cup 2016AlmandinLiam Howley17
Melbourne Cup 2015Prince of PenzanceDarren Weir1
Melbourne Cup 2014ProtectionistAndreas Wohler11
Melbourne Cup 2013FiorenteGai Waterhouse5
Melbourne Cup 2012Green MoonRobert Hickmott5
Melbourne Cup 2011DunadenMikel Delzangles13

Below you will find numbers that have had the most winners assigned to them at the Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup Wins by SaddleclothTotal Melbourne Cup Wins
411 wins
1211 wins
110 wins
88 wins

Melbourne Cup 2023 Latest Odds

While knowing the best Melbourne Cup tips and studying the trends can help you pick which runners and jockeys you want to bet on, keeping an eye on the Melbourne Cup odds offered by the main betting sites can come in handy too. Whether you’ve already decided who you think is going to be the winner and want to find the best odds, or you simply want to see the alternatives on offer, you’ll want to check out the odds below.

Melbourne Cup HorsesTrainerMelbourne Cup OddsBet with
VaubanWillie Mullins4.5[bcblocks type=”CTA” template=”1″ operator=”bet365″ text=”Visit %operator%”]

18+, T&Cs Apply

Gold TripCiaron Maher & David Eustace7.0[bcblocks type=”CTA” template=”1″ operator=”bet365″ text=”Visit %operator%”] 

18+, T&Cs Apply

SoulcombeChris Waller9.0[bcblocks type=”CTA” template=”1″ operator=”bet365″ text=”Visit %operator%”]

18+, T&Cs Apply

Without a FightAnthony & Sam Freedman9.0[bcblocks type=”CTA” template=”1″ operator=”ladbrokes” text=”Visit %operator%”]

18+, T&Cs Apply

BreakupTatsuya Yoshioka15.0[bcblocks type=”CTA” template=”1″ operator=”ladbrokes” text=”Visit %operator%”] 

18+, T&Cs Apply

AbsurdeWillie Mullins15.0[bcblocks type=”CTA” template=”1″ operator=”unibet” text=”Visit %operator%”]

18+, T&Cs Apply

Lunar FlareGrahame Begg15.0[bcblocks type=”CTA” template=”1″ operator=”unibet” text=”Visit %operator%”]

18+, T&Cs Apply

Valiant KingJoseph Patrick O’Brien26.0[bcblocks type=”CTA” template=”1″ operator=”unibet” text=”Visit %operator%”]

18+, T&Cs Apply

Future HistoryCiaron Maher & David Eustace26.0[bcblocks type=”CTA” template=”1″ operator=”bet365″ text=”Visit %operator%”]

18+, T&Cs Apply

LastotchkaJ-M Beguigne26.0[bcblocks type=”CTA” template=”1″ operator=”unibet” text=”Visit %operator%”]

18+, T&Cs Apply

Odds correct at time of publishing and may be subject to change.

Melbourne Cup 2023 Predictions & Tips FAQ

There is no set winning formula that guarantees racing fans will win big when betting on the Melbourne Cup or indeed any sporting event. However, following Melbourne tips can certainly help reduce the element of luck involved in your selection.

We’ll have a better idea of who will win the Melbourne Cup closer to the big day at Flemington once the final contenders have been released. For now, Vauban is the worthy favourite to take home the prize in 2023.

This year, the Melbourne Cup starts at 3pm AEDT on Tuesday 7th November at Flemington Racecourse.

Yes, just like the Melbourne Cup, racing fans will also be able to bet on the Caulfield Cup come race day.

For more information on how to bet on the Melbourne Cup you can have a look at the following pages:

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