Melbourne Cup Tips & Predictions 2024

We’ve all got a way of picking our Melbourne Cup horses. It can pay to hear a second opinion in the form of some Melbourne Cup tips, or to analyse Melbourne Cup trends to see what a typical winner looks like. Rest assured you’re in the right place. We’ve got a racing expert analysing all the form in the Melbourne Cup Carnival build-up to bring you well-researched Melbourne Cup tips and predictions, plus a run through the Melbourne Cup trends to help you decide which horses are the best ones to back at Flemington Park this year.

Our Melbourne Cup 2024 Tips & Picks

Find out the best Melbourne Cup horses to bet on with detailed analysis from our expert horse racing tipster. As soon as he’s studied the form lines in detail and made his Melbourne Cup picks we’ll post them here. We’re leaving no stone unturned in our quest to bring you some winning Melbourne Cup 2024 tips.

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Positive Melbourne Cup Trends

Everyone has their own way of deciding which Melbourne Cup runners to back each year. Many go with the shortest, or indeed the longest Melbourne Cup odds on offer, others have a jockey they always follow, there are punters who choose based on a horse’s name or colours or else you could simply find some Melbourne Cup tips. With a field of 24 to choose from, it can help to use Melbourne Cup trends to guide your decision, whether you go all in on a particular type of horse or simply use the make-up of previous winners to rule out what you think are no-hopers.

Let’s look at the last 10 Melbourne Cup winners, alongside their betting odds:

It’s certainly worth looking more in depth for relevant Melbourne Cup trends, rather than simply backing the favourite or ruling out the underdogs based solely on their odds.

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How do Melbourne Cup Favourites Perform?

Anything can happen when it comes to horse racing, and this is especially true when it comes to the Melbourne Cup. For example, while it may seem counter-intuitive, racing history suggests that betting on the favourite is not always the best option if you want to bet on the Melbourne Cup winner. In fact, only one racing favourite has won the Melbourne Cup in the last 12 years. The table below shows previous Melbourne Cup favourites and their finishing positions.

Melbourne Cup Trends – Last 10 Years

The Melbourne Cup takes place on the first Tuesday in November. It’s the richest handicap run over this distance in the world so it always attracts runners from all corners of the globe and there are also many key pointers on how to bet on the Melbourne Cup including these trends and stats.

Plenty has changed since the Melbourne Cup was first run in 1861, so it makes sense to focus on the most recent runnings of the race when looking for trends to keep a close eye on. Here we’ll highlight some notable Melbourne Cup trends based on the 10 most recent Melbourne Cup race winners.

• 9/10 – Didn’t win last race before Melbourne Cup
• 9/10 – Won over 1½ miles or more before Melbourne Cup
• 6/10 – Placed in last race before Melbourne Cup
• 6/10 – Last run was 30 or less days before Melbourne Cup
• 4/10 – Last run was more than 30 days before Melbourne Cup
• 4/10 – Last run before Melbourne Cup was at Mooney Valley
  

It’s very interesting to note that nine of the last ten Melbourne Cup winners came into the famous race having failed to win on their previous outing, so the best Melbourne Cup tips and predictions should certainly look beyond a horse’s most recent outing. Most recent Melbourne Cup winners did secure a place on their last run though, whether that was recorded in Australia or overseas, so your horse should head to Flemington racecourse in some sort of form.

Melbourne Cup Trends – Last 20 Years

If you’d prefer to go back a little further when analysing the best Melbourne Cup trends to follow, we’ve looked through the record books to help you out.

• 19/19 – Had won a Group class race before
• 17/19 – Won 8 or fewer races before
• 17/19 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
• 16/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
• 16/19 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
• 16/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
• 16/19 – Raced at Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (4) or Moon Valley (7) last time
• 14/19 – Aged 5 or older
• 13/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
• 13/19 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
• 13/19 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
• 13/19 – Had raced at Flemington Park before (8 won there)
• 12/19 – Won by a AUS-based horse
• 11/19 – Aged 6 or older
• 10/19 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
• 10/19 – Horses from stall 10 or 11 placed
  

It’s fair to say that being a Group class race winner is absolutely crucial so that can provide an easy way to weed out some no-hopers when doing your Melbourne Cup research.

Melbourne Cup Trends – Jockeys and Trainers

While most of the focus is normally on the horses, it’s also important to keep each horse’s jockey and trainer in mind when placing your bets. Successful trainers such as Joseph and Danny O’Brien have had many of their horses go on to be crowned this race’s champion – for example, Joseph O’Brien trained 2020 winner Twilight Payment.

Additionally, a jockey’s racing history, weight and level of experience can also be contributing factors to the wagers which bettors end up placing.

These two pieces of information are known in the run-up to the competition, so you should take advantage of these facts when considering your Melbourne Cup bets.

• Makybe Diva is the most successful horse in the Melbourne Cup with three wins in 2003, 2004 and 2005.

• Two jockeys have both experienced the thrill of winning the Melbourne Cup four times. Bobby Lewis won the race in 1902, 1915, 1919 and 1927 while Harry White repeated the feat with wins in 1974, 1975, 1978 and 1979.

• Bart Cummings is the trainer with the most Melbourne Cup wins to his name. His 12 victories came in 1965, 1966, 1967, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1979, 1990, 1991, 1996, 1999 and 2008.

• Lloyd Williams’ horses have won the Melbourne Cup more often with a total 7 Melbourne Cup wins in 1981, 1985, 2007, 2012, 2016, 2017 and 2020 making him the most decorated owner.Michelle Payne became the first female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup in 2015, when the won the race on Prince of Penzance.

Melbourne Cup Trends – Age, Weights, Barriers and Saddlecloths

There are plenty more ways to analyse the previous Melbourne Cup races in the hope of finding trends that can point us in the direction of a winner.

Melbourne Cup Age Trends

Below you’ll find the ages horses have been when they’ve won the Melbourne Cup race, and how many times a horse of each age has won. There are two camps when it comes to the ideal age of a winning Melbourne Cup horse, so study the results before deciding whether you favour youthful exuberance over years of experience.

Melbourne Cup Weight Trends

Here are the four most common weights horses have been when they’ve won the Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup Barrier Trends

Although there’s no magic barrier that will guarantee a win for the horses and jockeys who are placed there, some bettors prefer to bet on runners whose barriers are positioned in a certain part of the field, once the draw has happened.

Melbourne Cup Saddlecloth Trends

Below you will find numbers that have had the most winners assigned to them at the Melbourne Cup.

How do International Horses Perform in the Melbourne Cup?

The money, history and prestige involved in the Melbourne Cup mean it’s become a race that trainers and jockeys from across the world want to be involved in. The favourite for the 2024 Melbourne Cup is likely to be the Willie Mullins trained Vauban, but how have overseas challengers fared in years gone by?

Melbourne Cup 2024 Latest Odds

While knowing the best Melbourne Cup tips and studying the trends can help you pick which runners and jockeys you want to bet on, keeping an eye on the Melbourne Cup odds offered by the main betting sites can come in handy too. You can check out the latest odds below.

Odds correct at time of publishing and may be subject to change.

Melbourne Cup Predictions & Tips FAQ

For more information on how to bet on the Melbourne Cup you can have a look at the following pages:

• Melbourne Cup odds
• Betting offers for existing customers
• How to bet on the Melbourne Cup