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How the Cup Market is Shaping Up

IMAGO / Pro Sports Images

Though yet more upheaval will come after certain domestic races, Royal Ascot in England has led to another shuffle in the betting market for the 2023 Melbourne Cup.

We have a new favourite now after an impressive performance at the royal meeting. We’re taking a look at him and some other prime candidates as we hit T-minus 18 weeks.

Vauban Scorches to the Head of the Cup Betting

While we know the Ebor Handicap has been handed golden ticket status, it was another English race that provided our latest Cup favourite. Willie Mullins’ Vauban won the Copper Horse Handicap at Ascot in fine style. He now leads the way.

We reported back in mid-June that Goldman, Silver Sonic and Without A Fight led the way. They were priced at $11, $11 and $13 respectively on the TAB.

With international internet bookmakers however, three completely different horses stand out.

Vauban Looks Another Star for Willie Mullins

The king of jumps racing in Ireland has had the Melbourne Cup in mind for some time with his French recruit, Vauban.

A winner at the Cheltenham Festival in 2022, the now five-year-old is even better on the Flat. In winning the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot, he sprung to clear Cup favouritism online.

His success under Ryan Moore was visually impressive, the gelding scoring by 7½ lengths. What’s more, the British handicapper has moved him up from an official rating of 101 to 114.

That shows the level of his class, but also shows he will have a lot of weight to carry. His now a general $8 shot with most bookmakers, though some $9 is available in a place.

Lunar Flare is an Improver

A $13 chance virtually across the board is Grahame Begg’s Lunar Flare.

Third to White Marlin in the Easter Cup last time (see below), the mare is an improving type. The key thing about her is that she has winning experience around Flemington.

She took the Bart Cummings last year from Francesco Guardi over 2400 metres. She went on to finish second to the same horse in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but staying distances should bring the very best out of her this year you’d feel.

Rock-Solid Winner White Marlin

The aforementioned White Marlin has had his own time at the top of the Melbourne Cup betting.

Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott’s galloper has been truly outstanding so far. Wins at Dundalk in Ireland were followed by more successes at Rosehill and Caulfield for new connections.

The Easter Cup success was a new level for this horse, though it was achieved over a shorter distance. When stepping up in trip, it may be sink or swim time for this horse at the top level and that’s when we are found to find yet another shuffle in the market.

White Marlin ranges from as short as $11 with some firms, up to $17 with others.

Gary Christie
139 articles
For more than 20 years, Gary has been immersed in the worlds of sports writing and betting. As well as writing on the subjects of sports and horse racing, Gary has spent years privately handicapping horse races around the world in order to bet professionally. While having appeared on TV and spoken publicly at racecourses, Gary has a passion for writing. He produces articles every day for various territories including North America, UK, Europe and Australia.
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18+ | Please play responsibly | Chances are you’re about to lose. | Terms and Conditions apply | Commercial content