In recent weeks, we’ve kept tabs on a number of the potential Melbourne Cup runners.
Having looked at Goldman, Vauban, Lunar Flare and the likes, we’re inspecting one of the possible Japanese raiders heading to Flemington on November 7.
Last year’s winner Gold Trip is beginning his journey now, but we’re checking out the Tatsuya Yoshioka-trained Breakup.
Breakup May Attempt Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup Double
We’ve known for some time now that there is expected to be a strong Japanese influence at the upcoming Melbourne Spring Carnival. As of now, both Silver Sonic and Breakup are each heading for the Melbourne Cup.
Silver Sonic may arrive only for the big race, though it has been reported that Breakup may arrive earlier. Reports from Japan suggest the five-year-old son of Novellist may also go for the Caulfield Cup.
On June 25th, Breakup was given a near-impossible task against the world’s highest rated horse, Equinox. His effort in the Takarazuka Kinen over 2200 metres was a good one nonetheless.
His trainer, Tatsuya Yoshioka, acknowledged that the horse needs a longer trip. He has identified the Caulfield Cup over 2400 metres as the ideal prep before the 3200m Melbourne Cup.
Breakup Solid in the Market
The Melbourne Odds really do show some differences depending on where the odds compilers are based. Worldwide bookmakers, often based in Britain or Ireland, show Vauban as favourite with big prices available on Goldman who is as short as $11 on the TAB.
Interestingly, both the TAB ($15) and the fix-odds worldwide bookmakers ($13-$17) have Breakup at similar odds. He certainly seems to have a strong chance, but how good is his form?
The major thing to note here is that Breakup isn’t simply consistent, he is improving. Between May 2021 and November 2022, Breakup ran to international ratings of roughly 75 to 105. He landed the Group 2 Copa Republica Argentina over 2500 metres at Tokyo along the way.
Since then, he has moved yards from Yoichi Kuroiwa to Tatsuya Yoshioka. Approximately 115 is his new level, though he was inconvenienced at Hanshin last time because of the race distance and he is bound to get better still. It’ll be interesting to see how he goes after another warm-up race.
A lot depends on what the handicapper does in the spring. Breakup is running at a very similar level to Without A Fight and Vauban, meaning any weight he gets from them would be positive.
John Duggan Passes Away
Former top level jockey John Duggan has sadly passed away.
A household name in the 70’s, Duggan will forever be remembered for his 1977 Melbourne Cup victory aboard Gold And Black.
Duggan learned his trade with Theo Green. At that time, he was one of several star apprentice riders. He completed his apprenticeship alongside Darren Beadman, Ron Quinton and Malcolm Johnston. Duggan also won two apprentice titles during this time.
