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Melbourne Cup Trends

Picking the winning horse for any race, let alone the Melbourne Cup, can be a tricky business so read on for the key Melbourne Cup betting trends and get ahead in your search for this year’s winner.

Everyone has their own way of deciding which Melbourne Cup runners to back each year. Many go with the shortest, or indeed the longest Melbourne Cup odds on offer, others have a jockey they always follow, there are punters who choose based on a horse’s name or colours or else you could simply find some Melbourne Cup tips. With a field of 24 to choose from, it can help to use Melbourne Cup trends to guide your decision, whether you go all in on a particular type of horse or simply use the make-up of previous winners to rule out what you think are no-hopers.

Let’s look at all the Melbourne Cup winners since 2009 to start with, alongside their odds:

2012Green Moon19/1
2015Prince Of Penzance100/1
2018Cross Counter11/1
2019Vow And Declare10/1
2020Twilight Payment25/1
2021Verry Elleegant18/1
2022Gold Trip21/1
  • Average winning Melbourne Cup odds: 18/1
  • Range of winning Melbourne Cup odds: 13/2 to 100/1
  • Winning Melbourne Cup favourites: 1
  • Melbourne Cup winners with double figure odds: 9
  • Melbourne Cup winners with triple figure odds: 1

The most eye-catching stat here is there have been as many 100/1 shots win the Melbourne Cup as there have been winning favourites. This implies it’s certainly worth looking more in depth for relevant Melbourne Cup trends, rather than simply backing the favourite or ruling out the underdogs based solely on their odds.

Melbourne Cup Betting Trends
Editorial credit: Kaspars Grinvalds / Shutterstock.com

The Melbourne Cup was first run way back in 1861 but plenty has changed since then so it makes sense to focus on the most recent runnings of the race when looking for trends to keep a close eye on. Here we’ll highlight some notable Melbourne Cup trends based on the 10 most recent Melbourne Cup race winners.

9/10 – Didn’t win last race before Melbourne Cup
9/10 – Won over 1½ miles or more before Melbourne Cup
6/10 – Placed in last race before Melbourne Cup
6/10 – Last run was 30 or less days before Melbourne Cup
4/10 – Last run was more than 30 days before Melbourne Cup
4/10 – Last run before Melbourne Cup was at Mooney Valley
3/10 – Last run before Melbourne Cup was in the UK or Ireland
2/10 – Last run before Melbourne Cup was at Caulfield
2/10 – Melbourne Cup winner trained by John Patrick O’Brien
2/10 – Melbourne Cup winner ridden by Kevin McEvoy
1/10 – Last run before Melbourne Cup was also at Flemington
1/10 – Won last race before Melbourne Cup

It’s very interesting to note that nine of the last ten Melbourne Cup winners came into the famous race having failed to win on their previous outing, so the best Melbourne Cup tips and predictions should certainly look beyond a horse’s most recent outing. Most recent Melbourne Cup winners did secure a place on their last run though, whether that was recorded in Australia or overseas, so your horse should head to Flemington racecourse in some sort of form.

The Melbourne Cup trends keep on coming, so whether you’re looking for a jockey to knows his way around Flemington better than his rivals or you feel a successful Melbourne Cup trainer is they key to victory, here are the results from the most recent runnings of the race.

YearWinning HorseWinning JockeyWinning Trainer
2022Gold TripMark ZahraCiaron Maher & David Eustace
2021Verry ElleegantJames McDonaldChris Waller
2020Twilight PaymentJye McNeilJoseph O’Brien
2019Vow And DeclareCraig WilliamsDanny O’Brien
2018Cross CounterKerrin McEvoyCharlie Appleby
2017RekindlingCorey BrownJoseph O’Brien
2016AlmandinKerrin McEvoyRob Hickmott
2015Prince of PenzanceMichelle PayneDarren Weir
2014ProtectionistRyan MooreAndreas Wohler
2013FiorenteDamien OliverGai Waterhouse
2012Green MoonBrett PrebbleRob Hickmott
2011DunadenChristophe LemaireMikel Delzangles

  • Makybe Diva is the most successful horse in the Melbourne Cup with three wins in 2003, 2004 and 2005.

  • Two jockeys have both experienced the thrill of winning the Melbourne Cup four times. Bobby Lewis won the race in 1902, 1915, 1919 and 1927 while Harry White repeated the feat with wins in 1974, 1975, 1978 and 1979.

  • Bart Cummings is the trainer with the most Melbourne Cup wins to his name. His 12 victories came in 1965, 1966, 1967, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1979, 1990, 1991, 1996, 1999 and 2008.

  • Lloyd Williams’ horses have won the Melbourne Cup more often with a total 7 Melbourne Cup wins in 1981, 1985, 2007, 2012, 2016, 2017 and 2020 making him the most decorated owner.Michelle Payne became the first female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup in 2015, when the won the race on Prince of Penzance.

There are plenty more ways to analyse the previous Melbourne Cup races in the hope of finding trends that can point us in the direction of a winner.

Below you’ll find the ages horses have been when they’ve won the Melbourne Cup race, and how many times a horse of each age has won. There are two camps when it comes to the ideal age of a winning Melbourne Cup horse, so study the results before deciding whether you favour youthful exuberance over years of experience.

Age of Melbourne Cup Winning HorseTotal Melbourne Cup Wins
Three23 wins
Four46 wins
Five44 wins
Six33 wins
Seven11 wins
Eight3 wins

Here are the four most common weights horses have been when they’ve won the Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup Winning WeightsTotal Melbourne Cup Wins
54.5kg8 wins
53.5kg7 wins
53kgs7 wins
52.5kgs7 wins

One popular way for one-bet-a-year Melbourne Cup punters to decide their bet is based on the barriers each horse is drawn in. Over the last 20 years, five barriers have accounted for 2 wins each: 5, 10, 11, 14 and 22, with Barrier 5 providing an eye-catching eight Melbourne Cup wins since 1924. Before 2021, the horse coming out of Barrier 18 was seen as one to avoid, before Verry Elleegant put paid to that particular theory.

Below you will find numbers that have had the most winners assigned to them at the Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup Wins by SaddleclothTotal Melbourne Cup Wins
411 wins
1211 wins
110 wins
88 wins

This year’s Melbourne Cup racing line-up is still to be finalised but analysing betting trends allows us to figure out the make-up of a typical winner. For example, very few recent Melbourne Cup winners have come into the race off the back of a win, while the majority will have already enjoyed success over a distance of at least 1½ miles. We can narrow down the field to a shortlist based on such Melbourne Cup trends.

If you’re wanting to bet on the horse that will win the Melbourne Cup 2023, it’s a good idea to take betting trends into consideration before placing your bet, as well as the odds being offered by bookmakers. Once the final list of horses who will be running in the Melbourne Cup has been announced, this will help you get a clearer idea of which horse is the best one to bet on.

The results of Melbourne Cup 2022 are as follows, with the Trifecta paying $16,494.

  • 1st: No. 1: Gold Trip
  • 2nd: No. 17: Emissary
  • 3rd: No. 22: High Emocean

For more information on how to bet on the Melbourne Cup you can have a look at the following pages:

18+ | Please play responsibly | What’s gambling really costing you? | Terms and Conditions apply | Commercial content